Two major new studies just dropped, and the data is worth paying attention to.
According to a study from MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, current AI systems already have the technical capability to replace 11.7% of the US workforce, representing approximately $1.2 trillion in wages.
Meanwhile, a separate report from the McKinsey Global Institute found that today’s technology could theoretically automate 57% of current US work hours, potentially unlocking $2.9 trillion in annual economic value by 2030.
These aren't distant forecasts for a sci-fi future. They are assessments of what technology can do right now.
To unpack what this means for workers, businesses, and the economy, I spoke with SmarterX and Marketing AI Institute founder and CEO Paul Roetzer on Episode 183 of The Artificial Intelligence Show.
The "Iceberg" Beneath the Surface
The MIT study introduces what they call the “Iceberg Index.”
The name is a metaphor for the current state of AI disruption. The researchers argue that highly visible tech layoffs are just the “tip of the iceberg.” Beneath the surface lies a massive, largely invisible layer of exposure in sectors like logistics, finance, human resources, and administrative support.
The study uses “Large Population Models” to simulate the US labor market, representing 151 million workers as autonomous agents to test how AI capabilities overlap with human skills.
“Evidence suggests workforce change is occurring faster than planning cycles can accommodate,” says Roetzer, referencing the study’s language. “States are committing billions to workforce programs while key workforce dynamics remain invisible to traditional planning tools.”
For policymakers, this is a wake-up call. If states and schools don't understand where AI capabilities overlap with human skills, they cannot effectively prepare the workforce for what comes next.
“If you don't understand what AI models are capable of and where the crossover is of what these models are capable of doing, then your state isn't going to be prepared to upskill your workforce,” says Roetzer.
Skill Partnerships and the $2.9 Trillion Opportunity
While MIT focused on exposure, McKinsey’s report focused on value.
Their research suggests that AI won't just replace jobs. It will fundamentally reshape them into “skill partnerships” between humans and agents. In fact, they found that 72% of skills are required for both automatable and non-automatable work.
As a result, employer demand for “AI fluency," or the ability to use and manage AI tools, has increased sevenfold over the past two years.
Roetzer points out that this shift requires more than just buying new software.
“Integrating AI will not be a simple technology rollout, but a re-imagining of work itself,” he says, highlighting a key insight from the report. “Redesigning processes, roles, skills, culture, and metrics. So people, agents, and robots create more value together.”
The "Economic Turing Test" Has Arrived
The data from both studies points to a single conclusion: We are rapidly approaching a moment where AI becomes a viable alternative to human labor for entire categories of work.
Roetzer calls this the “Economic Turing Test.”
“At the end of the day when things really start to change is when businesses make a decision to hire an AI agent or a collection of agents working together instead of a person,” says Roetzer. “Not just for tasks and projects, but for full jobs.”
Right now, much of the disruption we see comes from efficiency, or humans using AI to do more with less. But as models get smarter and agents become more capable, the calculation changes.
This leaves knowledge workers with a critical question to answer as they look toward 2026 and beyond:
How does the Economic Turing Test apply to you and your own career? Why would someone hire you over an AI agent or group of agents?
The Bottom Line
These reports confirm what many in the industry have suspected: The technology to disrupt the labor market isn't coming in five or ten years. It is here today.
Whether that disruption leads to mass displacement or a productivity boom depends on how quickly leaders, policymakers, and individuals can adapt.
“We do not need to reach AGI,” Roetzer warns, “to completely transform business, the economy, and society.”
Mike Kaput
As Chief Content Officer, Mike Kaput uses content marketing, marketing strategy, and marketing technology to grow and scale traffic, leads, and revenue for Marketing AI Institute. Mike is the co-author of Marketing Artificial Intelligence: AI, Marketing and the Future of Business (Matt Holt Books, 2022). See Mike's full bio.