Moving Back the Timeline for AGI. Here’s Why.

The "AI 2027" report, a project that originally predicted Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) could arrive in two years, has been updated by its authors. The new consensus? It will arrive around 2030.

That’s because progress appears to be moving slower than originally predicted. Co-author Daniel Kokotajlo recently stated that his personal timeline for AGI has shifted to around 2030, though he notes significant uncertainty remains. Fellow author Eli Lifland clarified that while 2027 remains a possible arrival date, confirmed their median forecast has moved back roughly three years.

Some AI skeptics claimed victory with this revelation, including prominent critic Gary Marcus. He argued from the start that this "doomsday scenario" would not come by 2027 and laments that the U.S. has built, and continues to build, a national policy around the flawed timeline.  

But for business leaders trying to navigate the next 12 months, does a shift in a theoretical timeline actually change anything?

I discussed this with SmarterX and Marketing AI Institute founder and CEO Paul Roetzer on Episode 183 of The Artificial Intelligence Show. 

"So Many Variables"

The revision of the AI 2027 timeline has drawn criticism, with some policy advisors arguing the original report was simply fearmongering.

However, Roetzer argues that these shifts are simply evidence of the immense complexity involved in predicting the trajectory of AI technology.

“I think it just highlights the uncertainty around all of this,” says Roetzer. “No one really knows. It may be 2030, it may be sooner, it may be later. There are just so many variables.”

Roetzer has long maintained that AI timelines should be viewed as ranges rather than fixed dates, estimating AGI arrival likely falls somewhere between 2026 and 2030. But getting bogged down in the debate over exactly when it will arrive misses the more urgent concern of how to prepare now.

Disruption Is Happening Even Without AGI

The most critical insight for leaders isn't about when a superintelligence will arrive. It’s about understanding the power of the tools they already have.

Even if  AGI is decades away, the current generation of AI models is powerful enough to upend industries, reshape the workforce, and redefine business strategy.

“If we stopped development of AI models today, if we shut off all the AI labs and all we had was today's current models, everything changes anyway,” says Roetzer.

Waiting for a specific AGI benchmark to justify action is a strategic error. The capabilities available in today's frontier models, such as reasoning, coding, creative generation, are already sufficient to drive big transformation.

“People don't comprehend how disruptive the tech we already have is,” says Roetzer.

Keep Moving Forward

The danger of reports pushing dates back to 2030 is that it gives organizations a reason to pause on AI adoption.

If you interpret this news as having a few more years to figure things out, you risk falling behind competitors who are deploying today’s technology with urgency.

“Just move forward with a sense of urgency to figure this stuff out and get ahead of everybody else and then pull them along with you,” says Roetzer.

The alternative is waiting until the disruption is undeniable, by which point it will likely be too late to catch up.

“Otherwise, when it does show up, you're going to have your ChatGPT moment when we knew for years it was coming and then it just shows up and you're like, 'What is this?'” says Roetzer.

Be Prepared

Forecasts will change. Timelines will shift. But the trajectory of AI is clear.

Whether AGI arrives in 2027, 2030, or even later, the mandate for business leaders remains the same: Get ready. 

“It's a good mantra for 2026: Be prepared,” says Roetzer.