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Microsoft Researchers Say GPT-4 Could Be AGI

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A team of Microsoft AI scientists claims that GPT-4, the latest iteration of OpenAI's Large Language Model, exhibits "sparks" of human-level intelligence, or artificial general intelligence (AGI).

The researchers argue in a new paper that GPT-4's impressive performance in a wide range of tasks, such as mathematics, coding, and even legal exams, indicates its potential as an early version of an AGI system. 

AGI is a disputed term. OpenAI defines it as either “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work” or “AI systems that are generally smarter than humans.” 

But regardless of how we define it, we’re broadly talking about a new kind of intelligent machine—one so powerful it could have highly disruptive effects on us as a society and species.

While some argue that AGI is a pipe dream, others believe that it could usher in a new era for humanity, and this research indicates GPT-4 might just be leading the way.

Is this for real? 

I spoke with Marketing AI Institute founder/CEO Paul Roetzer on Episode 40 of the Marketing AI Show to learn more.

Here’s what you need to know…

  1. The researchers say GPT-4 potentially shows “sparks” of AGI. They make no claims this is some superhuman machine with autonomous agency. Regardless of how we define AGI (more on that in a second), their point is that GPT-4 is a different, more robust type of intelligence than tools that came before: “We contend "that (this early version of) GPT-4 is part of a new cohort of LLMs (along with ChatGPT and Google's PaLM for example) that exhibit more general intelligence than previous AI models."
  2. But we can’t even agree on what AGI means. There are plenty of competing definitions of AGI. Many are so vague they’re not very helpful. OpenAI has defined it in different places on its website as “highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work” or “AI systems that are generally smarter than humans.” 
  3. Yet we do need to take this speculation seriously. Until we conclusively prove the existence of AGI, it’s still science fiction. However, this is a formal research paper from Microsoft, which means we have to take it seriously. In our experience at Marketing AI Institute, this is the first time we’ve seen a credible source like this formally publish about the possibility that AGI exists. And don’t forget that—pipe dream or not—the stated mission of OpenAI and others is to bring about artificial general intelligence. 
  4. And debating AGI actually misses the bigger point. If we do achieve some all-intelligent machine, there’s no doubt all bets are off. But until that time, it may not actually matter what we call advanced AI tools like GPT-4. What matters is what’s already possible with this technology, says Roetzer. Look at the power it already possesses and consider the exponential acceleration curve it's on. It’s already having a massive disruptive impact on business and society, and we’re just getting started.

Don’t get left behind…

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